Journal Papers

Ji, F., J.P. Evans, G. Di Virgilio, N. Nishant, A. Di Luca, N. Herold, S.M. Downes, E. Tam and K. Beyer (2020) Projected changes in vertical temperature profiles for Australasia. Climate Dynamics, 55, 2453–2468, doi: 10.1007/s00382-020-05392-2. [4.4MB]

Di Virgilio, G., J.P. Evans, H. Clarke, J. Sharples, A.L. Hirsch, and M.A. Hart (2020) Climate change significantly alters future wildfire mitigation opportunities in southeastern Australia. Geophysical Research Letters, 47(15), e2020GL088893, doi: 10.1029/2020GL088893. [6.7MB]

Barker, A., A. Pitman, J.P. Evans, F. Spaninks, and L. Uthayakumaran (2020) Drivers of future water demand in Sydney, Australia: examining the contribution from population and climate change. Journal of Water and Climate Change, jwc2020230. doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2020.230. [1.0MB]

Cavicchia L., A. Pepler, A. Dowdy, J. Evans, A. Di Luca and K. Walsh (2020) Future Changes in the Occurrence of Hybrid Cyclones: The Added Value of Cyclone Classification for the East Australian Low‐Pressure Systems. Geophysical Research Letters, 47(6), e2019GL085751, doi: 10.1029/2019GL085751. [21.6MB]

Di Virgilio, G., J.P. Evans, S.A.P. Blake, M. Armstrong, A.J. Dowdy, J. Sharples and R. McRae (2019) Climate change increases the potential for extreme wildfires. Geophysical Research Letters, 46 (14), 8517-8526, doi: 10.1029/2019GL083699. [1.3MB]

Dowdy, A., H. Ye, A. Pepler, M. Thatcher, S. Osbrough, J. Evans, G. Di Virgilio, and N. McCarthy (2019) Future changes in extreme weather and pyroconvection risk factors for Australian wildfires. Scientific Reports, 9(1), 10073, doi: 10.1038/s41598-019-46362-x. [2.2MB]

Grose M.R., J. Syktus, M. Thatcher, J.P. Evans, F. Ji, T. Rafter and T. Remenyi (2019) The role of topography on projected rainfall change in mid-latitude mountain regions. Climate Dynamics, 53(5), 3675-3690, doi: 10.1007/s00382-019-04736-x. [8.4MB]

Wang B., D. L. Liu, J. P. Evans, F. Ji, C. Waters, I. Macadam, P. Feng and K. Beyer (2019) Modelling and evaluating the impacts of climate change on three major crops in south-eastern Australia using regional climate model simulations. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 138(1), 509-526, doi: 10.1007/s00704-019-02843-7. [4.4MB]

Liu, D.L., B. Wang, J. Evans, F. Ji, C. Waters, I. Macadam, X. Yang and K. Beyer (2019) Propagation of climate model biases to biophysical modelling can complicate assessments of climate change impact in agricultural systems. International Journal of Climatology, doi: 10.1002/joc.5820. [44.2MB]

Clarke, H. and J.P. Evans (2018) Exploring the future change space for fire weather in southeast Australia. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, doi: 10.1007/s00704-018-2507-4. [3.8MB]

Ji, F., J.P. Evans, A. Di Luca, N. Jiang, R. Olson, L. Fita, D. Argüeso, L. T-C Chang, Y. Scorgie, M. Riley (2018) Projected Change in Characteristics of Near Surface Temperature Inversions for Southeast Australia. Climate Dynamics, doi: 10.1007/s00382-018-4214-3. [9.9MB]

Herold, N., M. Ekstrom, J. Kala, J. Goldie and J. Evans (2018) Australian climate extremes in the 21st century according to a regional climate model ensemble: implications for health and agriculture. Weather and Climate Extremes, doi: 10.1016/j.wace.2018.01.001. [6.3MB]

Evans, J.P., M. Kay, P. Abhnil and A. Pitman (2017) The resilience of Australian wind energy to climate change. Environmental Research Letters, 13(2), 024014, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aaa632. [1.5MB]

Di Luca, A., J.P. Evans and F. Ji (2017) Australian snowpack in the NARCliM ensemble: evaluation, bias correction and future projections. Climate Dynamics, doi: 10.1007/s00382-017-3946-9. [10MB]

Fan Y., Olson R., Evans J.P. (2017) A Bayesian posterior predictive framework for weighting ensemble regional climate models. Geoscientific Model Development, 10(6): 2321–2332. DOI: 10.5194/gmd-10-2321-2017. [1.7MB]

Bao, J., S. Sherwood, L. Alexander and J. Evans (2017) Future increases in extreme precipitation exceed observed scaling rates. Nature Climate Change, doi: 10.1038/nclimate3201. [2.2MB]

Fita, L., J.P. Evans, D. Argueso, A.D. King and Y. Liu (2016) Evaluation of the regional climate response to large-scale modes in the historical NARCliM simulations. Climate Dynamics, doi: 10.1007/s00382-016-3484-x. [6.0MB]

Evans, J.P., D. Argueso, R. Olson and A. Di Luca (2016) Bias-corrected regional climate projections of extreme rainfall in south-east Australia. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, doi: 10.1007/s00704-016-1949-9. [6.0MB]

Clarke, H., A.J. Pitman, J. Kala, C. Carouge, V. Haverd and J.P. Evans (2016) An investigation of future fuel load and fire weather in Australia. Climatic Change, 139(3), 591-605, doi: 10.1007/s10584-016-1808-9. [1.7MB]

Sharples, J.J., G. Cary, P. Fox-Hughes, S. Mooney, J.P. Evans, M. Fletcher, M. Fromm, P. Baker, P. Grierson and R. McRae (2016) Natural hazards in Australia: extreme bushfire. Climatic Change, 139(1), 85-99, doi: 10.1007/s10584-016-1811-1. [0.75MB]

Walsh, K., C. J. White, K. McInnes, J. Holmes, S. Schuster, H. Richter, J.P. Evans, A. Di Luca and R.A. Warren (2016) Natural hazards in Australia: storms, wind and hail. Climatic Change, 139(1), 55-67, doi: 10.1007/s10584-016-1737-7. [0.9MB]

Olson, R., Y. Fan and J.P. Evans (2016) A Simple Method for Bayesian Model Averaging of Regional Climate Model Projections: Application to South-East Australian Temperatures. Geophysical Research Letters, doi: 10.1002/2016GL069704. [1.5MB]

Olson, R., J.P. Evans, A. Di Luca and D. Argueso (2016) The NARCliM Project: Model Agreement and Significance of Climate Projections. Climate Research, 69(3), 209-227, doi: 10.3354/cr01403. [9.5MB]

Gross, M.H., L.V. Alexander, I. Macadam, D. Green and J.P. Evans (2016) The representation of health-relevant heatwave characteristics in a Regional Climate Model ensemble for New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory, Australia. International Journal of Climatology, doi: 10.1002/joc.4769. [1.1MB]

Di Luca, A., J.P. Evans, A. Pepler, L.V. Alexander and D. Argueso (2016) Australian East Coast Lows in a Regional Climate Model ensemble. Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science, 66(2), 108-124. [8.0MB]

Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S., C. White, L. Alexander, D. Argueso, G. Boschat, T. Cowan, J. Evans, M. Ekstrom, E. Oliver, A. Phatak and A. Purich (2016) Natural hazards in Australia: heatwaves. Climatic Change, doi: 10.1007/s10584-016-1650-0. [0.7MB]

Di Luca, A., D. Argueso, J.P. Evans, R. de Elia and R. Laprise (2016) Quantifying the overall added value of dynamical downscaling and the contribution from different spatial scales. Journal of Geophysical Research – Atmospheres, 121(4), 1575-1590, doi: 10.1002/2015JD024009. [1.4MB]

Macadam, I., D. Argüeso, J.P. Evans, D.L. Liu, A.J. Pitman (2016) The effect of bias correction and climate model resolution on wheat simulations forced with a Regional Climate Model ensemble. International Journal of Climatology, doi: 10.1002/joc.4653. [0.7MB]

Pepler, A.S., A. Di Luca, F. Ji, L.V. Alexander, J.P. Evans and S.C. Sherwood (2016) Projected changes in east Australian midlatitude cyclones during the 21st century. Geophysical Research Letters, 43(1), doi:10.1002/2015GL067267. [2.5MB]

Ji, F., J.P. Evans, J. Teng, Y. Scorgie, D. Argueso, A. Di Luca and R. Olson (2016) Evaluation of long-term precipitation and temperature WRF simulations for southeast Australia. Climate Research, 67, 99-115, doi:10.3354/cr01366. [4.5MB]

Pepler, A., L. Alexander and J.P. Evans (2016) Zonal winds and southeast Australian rainfall in climate models. Climate Dynamics, doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2573-6. [3.7MB]

Cortés-Hernández V.E., F. Zheng, J.P. Evans, M. Lambert, A. Sharma, S. Westra (2015) Evaluating regional climate models for simulating sub-daily rainfall extremes. Climate Dynamics, doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2923-4. [4.4MB]

Grose, M.R., J.Bhend, D. Argueso, M. Ekström, A. Dowdy, P. Hoffman, J.P. Evans, B. Timbal (2015) Comparison of various climate change projections of eastern Australian rainfall. Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal, 65(1), 72-89. [1.6MB]

Ji, F., J.P. Evans, D. Argueso, L. Fita and A. Di Luca (2015) Using Large-scale Diagnostic Quantities to Investigate Change in East Coast Lows. Climate Dynamics, doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2481-9. [1.1MB]

Evans, J. P., Ji, F., Lee, C., Smith, P., Argüeso, D., and Fita, L. (2014) A regional climate modelling projection ensemble experiment – NARCliM, Geoscientific Model Development, 7(2), 621-629, doi: 10.5194/gmd-7-621-2014. [1.4MB]

Ji, F., J. P. Evans, M. Ekström, and J. Teng (2014) Evaluating rainfall patterns using physics scheme ensembles from a regional atmospheric model. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 115, 297-304, DOI: 10.1007/s00704-013-0904-2. [1.3MB]

Evans, J.P., F. Ji, G. Abramowitz and M. Ekström (2013) Optimally choosing small ensemble members to produce robust climate simulations. Environmental Research Letters 8, 044050, DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044050. [0.5MB]

Evans, J. P., M. Ekström, and F. Ji (2012) Evaluating the performance of a WRF physics ensemble over South-East Australia. Climate Dynamics, 39(6), 1241-1258, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1244-5. [1.6MB]

Conference Papers

J.P. Evans, A. Pepler, A. Di Luca, F. Ji, L. Alexander and D. Argueso (2015) Future changes in Extreme East Coast Lows. In: 36th Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium: The art and science of water. Barton, ACT: Engineers Australia, 2015: 1131-1138, ISBN: 9781922107497. [1.0MB]

J.P. Evans, R. Olson, L. Fita, D. Argueso and A. Di Luca (2015) NARCliM model performance including teleconnections with climate modes. In Weber, T., McPhee, M.J. and Anderssen, R.S. (eds) MODSIM2015, 21st International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, December 2015, pp. 1531-1536. ISBN: 978-0-9872143-5-5. [1.2MB]

Ji, F., J.P. Evans, Y. Scorgie, N. Jiang, D. Argueso and A. Di Luca (2015) Projected change in Frequency, Intensity and Duration of Atmopsheric Temperature Inversions for Southeast Australia. In Weber, T., McPhee, M.J. and Anderssen, R.S. (eds) MODSIM2015, 21st International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, December 2015, pp. 490–496. ISBN: 978-0-9872143-5-5. [1.0MB]

Evans, J.P., C. Lee, D. Argüeso, F. Ji, A. Di Luca, R. Olson and M. Riley (2014) Regional climate change projections for use in impacts and adaptation research in south-east Australia. In: Practical Responses to Climate Change Conference 2014. Barton, ACT: Engineers Australia, 2014: 123-128, ISBN: 9781922107329. [1.0MB]

Evans, J.P., L. Fita, D. Argüeso and Y. Liu (2013) Initial NARCliM evaluation. In Piantadosi, J., Anderssen, R.S. and Boland J. (eds) MODSIM2013, 20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, December 2013, pp. 2765–2771. ISBN: 978-0-9872143-3-1. [2.3MB]

Evans, J.P. (2011) CORDEX - An international climate downscaling initiative, MODSIM2011 International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, Perth, Australia, 12 -16 December 2011. [1MB]

Conference Posters

D. Argueso, M.G. Donat, J.P. Evans, L.V. Alexander and L. Fita (2013) Trends in extreme indices in 60-year simulations over Australia. International conference on regional climate - CORDEX 2013, Brussles, Belgium, 4-7 November. [12.8MB]

Argüeso, D., L. Fita and J. P. Evans (2012) Temperature response to future land-use changes in the Sydney area. ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science Annual workshop, Hobart, 23-27 September. [9.4MB]

Fita, L., D. Argueso, Y. Liu, and J. P. Evans (2012) NARCliM: Regional climate modelling over Australia. ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science Annual workshop, Hobart, 23-27 September. [1.9MB]

Fita, L., S. Liles, D. Argueso and J.P. Evans (2013) NARCliM: Exploring new observational data-sets to validate regional climate simulations. An example with radio-soundings. Annual conference of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (AMOS) 2013, Melbourne, Australia, 11-13 February. [1.7MB]

Argueso, D., J.P. Evans and L. Fita (2013) Precipitation bias correction of very high resolution regional models. Annual conference of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (AMOS) 2013, Melbourne, Australia, 11-13 February. [6.6MB]

Project Reports

Technical Note 1 - Choosing GCMs [552kB]

Technical Note 2 - Choosing the RCMs to perform the downscaling [458kB]

Technical Note 3 - Guidance on the use of bias corrected data [195kB]

Technical Note 4 - NARCliM Climatological Atlas [52.6MB]

Technical Note 5 - Heatwaves affecting NSW and the ACT: recent trends, future projections and associated impacts on human health [5.0MB]

Technical Note 6 - NARCliM Extreme Precipitation Indices Report [7.5MB]