Ice coring in Antarctica

Research: Palaeoclimate Science

A key problem for reducing the uncertainty in climate projections is historical records of change are often too short to test the skill of climate models, raising concerns over our ability to successfully plan for future change. Published records only allow a robust reconstruction of global temperature back to around 1850 and show a ‘gradual’ warming trend of around 0.8°C. However, a wealth of geological, chemical, and biological records clearly indicate large changes in the climate system took place in the past. The forcing associated with these changes appear to have been relatively small, implying the associated thresholds (often described as ‘tipping points’) are considerably smaller than generally supposed. Gradual variations in the global climate on decadal to millennial timescales allow us to study the sensitivity of the climate system to external forcings, improving our estimates of the response to increasing concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases.

Against a backdrop of enhanced anthropogenic-driven climate change, it is essential we have a better understanding of the earth-ocean-atmosphere system. The Palaeoclimate Science team in the CCRC is actively researching a number of competing theories and models of annual to millennial-scale change, aiming to better understand the global system. By generating highly precise and accurate climatic changes from around the world, we are working to test the degree to which changes were synchronous (or not) across a range of periods in the geological past, and identify the mechanisms by which the climate signals were propagated globally. These results are critical for improving our ability to reduce future uncertainty.

The principal areas of research include:

Terrestrial, ice and marine climate reconstruction for key periods including the last 2000 years, the termination of the last glacial period (Termination 1) and the Last Interglacial (Stage 5e);
Modelling the Earth system using a range of models with varying degrees of complexity;
Reconstructing different modes of climate, including the Southern Annular Mode (often abbreviated to SAM);
the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the East Asian Monsoon (EAM);
Exploring the role of Southern Hemisphere Westerlies (SHW) and Thermohaline Circulation (THC) on the global climate system;
Reconstructing past ice sheet extent and their contribution to global sea level;
Modeling of climate-carbon cycle interactions on glacial to centennial time-scales;
Climate forcing, including volcanic and solar;
Ocean gateways and their influence on the evolution of the planet’s climate; and
Improved methods for climate reconstruction, chronological control and data-model comparison.

Team members are also members of the national Palaeoclimate Consortium.

Team members working in palaeoclimate science include:

Latest news

Announcing the Australasian Antarctic Expedition 2013-2014
06 May 2013
To mark the centenary of the Australasian Antarctic Expedition led by the great scientist and explorer Sir Douglas Mawson, Professor Chris Turney and Dr Chris Fogwill of the CCRC are leading a privately-funded voyage of discovery to the Antarctic during the Austral summer of 2013-2014.

New website will let you Adrift away
24 April 2013
Dr Erik Van Sebille along with David Fuchs and Jack Murray has created a new website, Adrift, which allows visitors to track the path of flotsam for the next 10 years from almost any place by the ocean.

Last 100 years reverse 1400 years of global cooling
22 April 2013
The first continental-scale reconstruction of temperatures over the past 2000 years by 78 scientists from 24 countries has highlighted the unusual nature of the 20th century warming.

More news...

The Copenhagen Diagnosis

On 25th November 2009 members of The Climate Change Research Centre, as part of a group of 26 international climate scientists, were part of a major international release of a new report synthesizing the latest climate research to emerge since the last IPCC Assessment Report of 2007.

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Co-authored by Professor Steven Sherwood and Professor Matt England of CCRC, this Academy of Science report aims to summarise and clarify the current understanding of the science of climate change for non-specialist readers.

The Big Engine 1: oceans and weather

Federation Fellow and 2008 Eureka Prize winner, Professor Matthew England of CCRC, on the latest research into the role oceans play on weather.

New insights into the climate of the past 2,000 years

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