Krushna Chandra Gouda Seminar - Multi-scale Modelling and Forecasting of Monsoon Weather and Processes

Event type: 
28 June 2017
2.00pm - 3.00pm

Climate Change Research Centre seminar room, Level 4 Mathews Building, Kensington Campus, Sydney

Dr. Krushna Chandra Gouda
CSIR Fourth Paradigm Institute also known as CSIR Centre for Mathematical Modeling and Computer Simulation (CSIR C-MMACS) Bangalore, India
Climate Change Research Centre, UNSW, Australia

In spite of their various deficiencies, dynamical forecast models provide a viable solution for high-resolution forecasting at different scales. However, a major challenge in simulating and forecasting weather and climate systems is the wide range of interacting scales. Prohibitive computing cost of simulating say, meso-scale events at resolutions of a few kms in a global model has necessitated a generation of models called the limited area models (LAM). However, increase in computing power as well as improved modelling techniques today gives rise to the possibility of a better simulation through a single modelling platform. The present talk focuses on multi-scale modelling and forecasting of monsoon weather and processes using a Global Circulation Model (GCM).
The main strength of an LAM is its ability to allow the very high spatial resolution necessary to resolve mesoscale dynamics. A necessary price for such high horizontal resolution with an LAM, however, is a small numerical domain of integration. The size of the domain implicitly determines the largest horizontal scale allowed by the model dynamics. However, with growing evidence that large-scale circulation exerts significant influence over small-scale processes, use of a GCM with sufficiently high resolution is a potentially effective strategy for simulating meso-scale events.
A relatively unique class of GCM that combines the advantages of a GCM and an LAM to a large extent is the so called Variable Resolution GCM (VRGCM) which allows a higher resolution (zoom) over a specified domain. Our strategy is to explore this approach for a number of scales. The VRGCM has been tested for three major scales: forecasting of monsoon rainfall, tropical cyclones (synoptic scale) at short range, extreme rainfall events. The concept and algorithm of different Ensemble methodologies has been developed and applied to forecasting at different scales.


Brief Biography: Dr. Krushna Chandra Gouda is currently working as a Senior Scientist at CSIR Fourth Paradigm Institute, Bangalore, India. Recently Dr. Gouda Honored to be selected as EMCR Fellow award by Indian National Science Academy and he is currently visiting CSIRO (O&A), Melbourne and working with Dr. Marcus Thatcher and Dr. John McGregor for the period May-Aug 2017. He obtained his M.Sc., M.Phil, from Berhampur University, Odisha, and MCA degree from IGNOU, New Delhi while pursuing his research at National Remote Sensing Agency, ISRO, Hyderabad and subsequently completed PhD from Mangalore University. He is also currently working as a Faculty in the Mathematical and Information Science department of Academy of Scientific and Innovative Research (AcSIR) and guiding 5 PhD scholars.

His research and professional career spans about 17 years of research and capacity building in modeling and computer simulation. His expertise is primarily in the domains Long-range dynamical Forecasting,  Ensemble prediction System, Multi-scale dynamical simulation, Vector Borne Disease modeling, Climate-Crop Modelling, Data assimilation, Satellite Remote Sensing, cloud computing, knowledge engineering and related subjects. He is presently involved in several international and national projects.